The Ugly Truth About TradingDate: November 22, 2008 From: Under the Coconut Tree Re: Disinformation According to the Harvard School of Business Study, 97% lose money, 2% break even, and only 1% make money. Isn't that shocking? I've heard over the years talk about 90% end up losing. Whatever. If this Harvard study is true what this really means is that 99% of what is being taught simply does not work! The reality of the trading industy is there are far more people making money selling other people's systems and "how to make money trading" than there are people actually making money trading. And most of these systems don't work! Those of us who do actually make a living trading know about the many gurus who are famous but don't make money trading. They make money selling new trading systems, seminars, home study courses. Most of these gurus don't even trade the system they sell. When you see a television ad about a new software that will make you rich - hide your wallet. They don't work. Trading succesfully requires thinking. What is critical to understand is that futures is a zero-sum game. In other words, the total profits of the winners equal the total losses of the losers. And that is why in order to succeed, you must also understand this this word. DisinformationThere is a mountain of sources of information about how to trade. Powerful computers within everyone's budget that promises to make a killing in the markets. Why is it still that such a high percentage of traders still end up losing? Disinformation is false or inaccurate information that is spread deliberately to confuse and mislead you - the adversary. In other words... traders are liars! Misinformation on the other hand although unintentional still leads traders to losing. So you can forget about using internet chat rooms, bulletin boards for information. Trading is a competion. Disinformation is a weapon. Traders constantly send or leak disinformation. Other traders are your opponent... not your friend... they are trying to trick you into trading incorrectly... by giving you disinformation. Enron and HealthSouth accounting scheme is disinformation. Bernie Madoff's record breaking 50 billion dollar pyramid scheme is disinfomation. Mechanical trading systems is disinformation. It does not matter if you spend $10,000 on the best software to back-test and optimize the system... or go work for on Wall Street to access a million dollar program... the results will be the same. It will only work some of the time and then you will be told to re-optimize the indicator. If you believe quant trading programs really work you only need to look at Lehman Brothers who went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch lost billions in trading to be sold out to Bank of America and Goldman Sach got bailed out by the government. All this disinformation is... BrainwashingSo I don't really blame you for not believing anything on this website. Why should you? You should be skeptical. I give two reasons. 1. It is heavily documented. It started out as my own personal research project that I started after reading a book on archaeology. The scientific approach was to document every reversal date of the S&P500. In total from 1970 to 2006 there were 1586 reversals. Only after "seeing" the solution did I convert it into ebook form. Don't believe me. Go and print out the charts and count the total number of reversals yourself. 2. There is a performance guarantee. Look around the internet. Nobody else selling systems can afford to give you a performance guarantee or they would go bankrupt. |
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